The (rather unlikely) goal of the season?

Weekend highlights

As we enter crunch time on most leagues in Europe, the upcoming football weekend will be packed with exciting matches and unpredictable outcomes. Let's take a quick look at some of the most promising match-ups.

In Portugal, Braga leads the championship, one point ahead of FC Porto and two from Benfica. Benfica and Braga will meet on Saturday at Estádio da Luz, while FC Porto entertain Olhanense at home in a must-win match, a couple of hours earlier. Will Benfica be able to get ahead of Braga, who haven't defeated Benfica away in a few decades? Next week: Braga vs FC Porto and Sporting vs Benfica.

In Italy, there will be a classic match that's decisive for both teams playing it - Juventus vs Napoli. The bianconeri are four points off Milan and can't afford to waste any more points, if they're to win the league. Napoli, in turn, sit fourth (level with Udinese), three points behind Lazio, in a fight for the last Champions League place. This means that neither team will be able to do their usual thing of sitting and waiting.

In Spain, the most interesting match pits Barcelona against Bilbao, not least because only 48 will have elapsed since the Basques' amazing win (2-3) in Schalke's own turf. Since neither team can afford to drop points and both base their game on pressing the opponent, what will it mean? Will Bilbao change half the team and maintain their pressing? Will Barça?

Finally, in England, there's some expectation as to what Roberto Di Matteo will do in the match against Aston Villa. Will he change half the team that won in Lisbon last Tuesday or will he stick to his guns and leave his winning eleven untouched? On Sunday, Newcastle will face Liverpool, hoping Chelsea have dropped points the day before, so that they can keep dreaming about Champions League football for next year. As for Liverpool, having ensured the return to European competition via their League Cup win, they are clearly waiting for the season to finish.

Vintage Champions League

Starting line-ups

Benfica and Chelsea met yesterday at the Luz to see which team would go through to the next stage of this season's Champions League. What we saw was a typical display of this competition, with the underdogs playing better football and the powerhouse withstanding one attack after another (and almost conceding a goal), only to score in the last minutes of the match in a quick breakaway.

Benfica manager Jorge Jesus chose his expected eleven, with Gaitán and Bruno César on the wings, and Aimar behind Cardozo. On the contrary, Chelsea interim coach Roberto Di Matteo changed half his team and left Bosingwa, Cahill, Essien, Lampard, Sturridge and Drogba on the bench (with even Paulo Ferreira getting a highly unlikely nod), clearly stating his mission for this leg - and showing that every player in the Chelsea roster will have his moment.

Chelsea's game plan was clear: sit back, soak pressure, lots of time on the ball (even if it didn't necessarily mean progressing up the field with it) and a breakaway, where possible. With Benfica wary of exerting their usual full-on pressure on the opponent's defensive line, Chelsea defenders and midfielders had numerous moments where they could slow the tempo of the game, annoying the Eagles' fans. Di Matteo had clearly done his homework and played the more industrious and defensively aware Kalou on the left wing, in order to try to check Benfica's preferential attacking route - the right wing. Additionally, Torres was told to drift toward that space in order to take advantage of Maxi Pereira's bold positioning - and dragging his direct marker with him.

Torres connects to the long ball behind Maxi Pereira, dragging Luisão with him.
Kalou runs into the space his team-mate opened up.

Here, Luisão tries to get back to his position and Javi García compensates his team-mate.

This simple movement gives Meireles space to shoot (because he is already late, Maxi tries to take Javi García's place)

As usual, Benfica attacked down the right, with Gaitán, Witsel and Aimar all taking turns to push up, trying to drag both Meireles and Mikel out of position - which they did at times, even though not as frequently as expected. The problem was the infamous weakest link: the left wing. Even though Emerson has taken a lot of flack throughout the season, it hasn't always been his fault, and last night was just another example. Ramires, playing to the right, but narrower than Kalou, helped creating numerical superiority in midfield and often tried to take on Emerson, since Bruno César (and then Gaitán, after his permanent move to the left) rarely tracked back, leaving acres of space for the Blue Kenyan to exploit (see the yellow area in the top diagram). As it turned out, that would be Benfica's fatal mistake.

Ramires (nr. 7), a nominal right-winger, played narrow

Even though this seems a counter-attack, it is just normal play - and already Ramires has lots of space to run into

With both teams in similar formations, it would all come down to speed and creativity. Chelsea, as stated elsewhere, are much more calm and collected, and better organised, which meant they would be less vulnerable to breaking runs and counter-attacks. Paulo Ferreira was essential for the Londoners' newfound stability on the right, since he is much more reliable defensively and has a deeper understanding of a fullback's duties. The Eagles would have to step up for the second half.

And that's exactly what they did. As it so often happens in the latter stages of this competition, the favourites were constantly subject to attacks during the second half's first 15 minutes, a period in which Benfica could (and should) have scored. Cech made great saves, Luiz bravely saved Cardozo's effort off the line and it seemed Chelsea's fortress was about to collapse. It was plain to see that the increase in speed from Witsel (showing that he is just the man Benfica needed for this sort of matches), Aimar and Gaitán (much better on the left) was making Meireles and - particularly - Mikel uncomfortable, especially because Torres was back to his old self, unable to hold on to a single ball. With Mata off his game (it's clear that he shouldn't start his moves from the middle), Ramires was the only out-ball the Blues had.

Jesus was desperate to win the match and replaced Aimar and Bruno César with Rodrigo and Matic, meaning that Witsel would go right, Matic would take his place beside Javi García and Rodrigo would play just off Cardozo - and that's when it all started to crumble. As it has often been the case, Benfica's attempt to win the match unbalanced the whole team. Witsel's influence on the right was diminished and the Portuguese team started losing control. While Chelsea's goal was a recap of their strengths (experience, resilience, a more compact midfield and breakaways), it was also something that we have see too often in Benfica: their will to win at any cost often means that the team lose their balance.

This would lead to Chelsea's goal. Notice how high up Emerson is, with no offensive coverage.

After Ramires' impressive run, it's up to Torres to proceed. Matic shows once again he still has a lot to learn.
The green arrow indicates where he should be providing coverage.

There is one last issue being mentioned. Managers keep telling us that there is always some strategy behind their decisions, but it's sometimes hard to understand what it is. What's the logic in shuffling Witsel to the right, only to bring him back to the middle ten minutes later? Mind you, Jesus is far from being the only manager to do that, and we can only hope that some day we will get a straight answer to this question from a manager.

Benfica-Chelsea tactical preview

Benfica and Chelsea meet up tomorrow for the first leg of the quarter-finals of the Champions League, in what could turn out to be a very interesting, unpredictable tie. Below we present a few reasons that might explain why one of the teams will go through.

3 reasons why Chelsea will defeat Benfica

1) Resilience. If the match against Napoli taught us anything, it was that this team are not as bad as most people seem to think and that there is still something left in their tanks. Chelsea core players are victors from other battles who can muster their fading strengths when necessary – and the matches against Valencia and Napoli should be a sound warning to Benfica.

2) A tendency to attack down the middle. Despite Roberto Di Matteo’s recent (slight) change of mind, Sturridge is usually stationed on the right and drifts inward (or on the left, where he is clearly less effective). Mata, usually starting on the left, is also prone to search central areas, and Drogba is a competitive monster who thrives on long balls – Chelsea’s preferential route of late. Given that Benfica tend to leave their centre almost exclusively to Javi García, this could be a good option for the Londoners.

3) A more compact midfield. If Chelsea attack down the centre, it’s also true that they defend better in that area, as well. While distant from his former self, Essien is increasingly closer to his physical levels of yesteryear. Lampard, in turn, sits further back than he used to, but he is still capable of providing long, diagonal balls over the top, to which Benfica are sometimes vulnerable.

3 reasons why Benfica will defeat Chelsea

1) Attacking movement. Benfica is all about going for the jugular, even when it might not prove the best for them. In that, Gaitán, Bruno César, Nolito and Maxi Pereira excel at overloading the wings and penetrate in one-two moves. Even though some at Chelsea still remember how to defend properly, Benfica’s fluidity might just be too much.

2) Chelsea’s man-marking. The blues’ preferential option for dealing with defensive set pieces is man-marking, which could play right into the Eagles’ hands. Jesus’ obsession with offensive set pieces may prove decisive to break the deadlock.

3) Quick transitions into offence. One of Benfica’s main attributes is their vertical speed, i.e. the pace at which they can turn a defensive situation into a clear scoring chance for themselves. Conversely, this is one of the Londoners' weakest spots, because Mata and Sturridge often turn off during their defensive duties, and only Ramires tracks back. With Maxi, Witsel and Gaitán, to name but a few, Benfica ‘s pace might just do the trick.

The best way not to mark Hulk

Last Sunday's match between Paços de Ferreira and FC Porto for the Portuguese championship gave us a perfect example of how not to defend - particularly a strong, fast player like Hulk.

Paços de Ferreira defend poorly and FC Porto end up scoring.
Notice the huge amount of space behind both Paços players (yellow area)

It is common knowledge that, if you have two players defending an opponent, one should go for the ball and the other one should provide coverage, in case the first defender gets beaten and/or to warn the opponent that the space behind the first defender is taken. However, it is one thing to say it or write it - and a very different thing to do it in an actual match, requiring hours of training and coordination.

In this particular play, Hulk goes up against two Paços players. The first one (red circle) is doing the right thing by protecting the middle (and simultaneously Hulk's strongest foot). However, the second defender should be providing coverage for the first one, with the arrow indicating where he should be, ideally. Because he wasn't, Hulk was able to speed up, get past both opponents and cross for another defender's interception into his own net.

The intoxicating fear of defeat

Starting line-ups

Chelsea and Tottenham met last Saturday trying to win the upper hand for the remaining matches in order to get the much-sought 4th place and respective Champions League place. However, the fear of losing was clearly far too great for both teams, which meant we were presented with a very cagey match, with the best scoring chances coming both from set pieces.

Chelsea started without Meireles, Luiz, Torres and Ivanovic, whereas Tottenham were without Lennon, which brought van der Vaart to the right wing when for his defensive duties. Harry Redknapp's team sat back and soaked up the pressure, and Sandro was instructed to push higher up to break up Chelsea's first area of build-up play.

As for Roberto Di Matteo, his main concern seemed to be the threat of Gareth Bale, telling Ramires to help Bosingwa out and always create 2v1 situations against the Welshman, which rather explains the little impact he had throughout the match. The midfield duo of Essien and Lampard was predictably slow, despite Essien's increasing combativeness. With Ramires stationed on the right, Sturridge was pushed to the left and Mata behind Drogba. The English winger is clearly least effective on the left, because he can't make his preferential move and drift inwards, and the Spaniard feels less comfortable starting from the middle, because it means he is always the subject of a centre-back or holding midfielder's attention, instead of surprising them.

Di Matteo's men had a clear offensive plan: take advantage of Lampard's presence and going for balls over the top, either for Sturridge (going into the space opened up by Drogba) or Drogba himself, always likely to thrive on scraps. Close to half-time, Tottenham pushed a bit further up and made the game more interesting, coming close to scoring.

In the second half, both Bale and Van der Vaart were brought to the centre, choking Chelsea's midfield. Besides, Redknapp's team were more comfortable with the result and, therefore, were more patient shuffling the ball from side to side. Chelsea, in turn, were always capable of wreaking havoc every time they threw long, diagonal balls behind Tottenham's backline.

On 75 minutes, Torres came on for Essien, suggesting Chelsea would go all out. Just like it had happened on the home match versus Arsenal, the blues lost the game plot, became disjointed and were closer than ever to losing the match.

All in all, it was a rather uninteresting match, even as far as tactics go, in clear contrast to what have been the match-ups between the top 5 English teams - high-scoring matches, with caution thrown to the wind. Neither team wanted to lose this game and ruin their chances of getting access to next year's Champions League.

Near miss for interim coaches worldwide

Starting line-ups

Roberto Di Matteo was just a few minutes away from becoming the poster boy for every club chairman/CEO aching to fire their coach for a string of bad results. Had Chelsea won last night and they would have made it 5 wins in 5 games under Di Matteo. As it is, the Londoners were brought down to earth and should be thinking in terms of Europa League.

Manchester City were very strong for the first ten minutes. With Cahill taking the injured John Terry's place, Chelsea are less intense and more vulnerable to short diagonal movements between Cahill and his full-back. This meant David Luiz was the left centre-back, a position he's much more used to and where he's most effective.

Chelsea's plan was obvious, apparently drawing inspiration on Sporting's display in the last Europa League tie against City: drop back with two banks of four and let Torres take full advantage of his newfound happiness, with Meireles as the link-up man. In fact, the Spaniard was very good working the channels, but the Portuguese is clearly not cut out for this position, since his decision-making is not always that good and he is not the most proficient player with his back to goal.

Chelsea strangely similar to Sporting

City were clearly the more dominant side, but it was clearly part of Chelsea's strategy. Apart from Samir Nasri's shot that hit the bar, the Citizens were only able to shot from distance, without being able to penetrate into the box. As has often been the case, Balotelli and Agüero showed that they are too prone to blowing hot and cold (nice moments of flare, but blatantly inconsistent) and that they are not very inclined to work and open up spaces for others. With opponents less and less inclined in going head-to-toe with City, Mancini's men are having a hard time finding free space.

Even though Meireles was not offering a decisive contribution offensively, he was being successful at (almost) man-marking Yaya Touré out of the game. With the Ivorian stationed next to De Jong, Meireles' task was clearly to break up City's build-up play. Silva was missing and Touré had too many defensive duties. Mancini's furious reaction on the touchline was a clear proof that City were getting nothing out of the game.

For the second half, Mancini brought on Gareth Barry for Balotelli, proving that less (attackers) is sometimes more. With the centre in good hands, Yaya Touré could finally break free and tread onto Chelsea's comfort zone - which meant Silva and Nasri were able to play farther up front, too. In turn, Meireles wasn't sure whether he was supposed to keep closing down Yaya Touré or stick to Barry.

The goals had something of a chance factor in them. Chelsea's goal came from a deflection off Yaya Touré's leg and City's penalty was a desperate shot that hit Essien's arm. Apart from that (Nasri's mentioned effort aside), there were no clear-cut chances for either side and City's victory, while deserved, almost didn't happen. In the end, Mancini's gung ho approach - with Tévez, Dzeko and Agüero - proved too much for Chelsea. Nevertheless, Di Matteo's team is now more calm and collected, better organized and even Cech looks now like his old self, much less prone to mistakes and distractions.